Time Series Behavior of the Volume of Wood Products Export in Ghana

2014

english

This study examines the patterns in the export of wood products in Ghana from 1997-2013. We also build atime series model to forecast the volume of wood products export over the same period. The study employs theBox-Jenkins methodology of building ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model. Monthly timeseries data on exports of wood products from 1997-2013 were extracted from monthly and annual reports on exportof wood products published by the Timber Industry Development Division (TIDD) of the Forestry Commission ofGhana. Different selected models were tested to ensure the accuracy of obtained results and ARIMA (3, 1, 0) (0,1, 1)12 was adjudged the best model. This model was then used to forecast the volume of wood products export for2014 and 2015. January and June represent the minimum and maximum export periods respectively. The modelwill guide TIDD in their annual timber export planning and also help avoid financial losses that could result frompoor decision making and ultimately improve efficiency of their operations.

Acquah, S. B.; Avuglah, R. K.; Harris, E.